每日外刊1016-致命热穹是万年一遇的超级事件（每日外刊1016-致命热穹是万年一遇的超级事件）

背景知识

81℃！81℃！81℃！美国的高温天气又来了！

根据美国气象部门的最新数据显示，在持续了长达半个月之久的高温天后，死亡谷终于迎来了历史性的高温，81.1℃，这是60年以来的最高气温，虽说这里没有过多人类的足迹，但是依然是我们不能承受的温度，在热浪的影响下，阿拉斯加州的温度也达到了47.2℃，要知道，人类可承受的温度才45℃，这次有超过3000万人要接受高温的考验了。

每日外刊1016-致命热穹是万年一遇的超级事件（每日外刊1016-致命热穹是万年一遇的超级事件）(1)

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Deadly Heat Dome Was a 1-in-10,000-Year Event

致命热穹是万年一遇的超级事件

The extreme heat that obliterated temperature records in the Pacific northwest in 2021 will likely occur just once every 10,000 years. Researchers from UCLA used multiple climate models to determine that the extraordinary heat disaster last year was a highly improbable event, even in the age of climate change. Previous studies suggested that the deadly heat wave, which killed about 800 people, had a probability of near zero.

2021年太平洋西北部破纪录的极端高温可能每1万年才会发生一次。加州大学洛杉矶分校的研究人员通过多种气候模型得出结论，即使在气候变化的背景下，去年极端的高温灾害也是极不可能发生的事。此前的研究表明，造成约800人死亡的致命热浪发生的概率接近于零。

“Accounting for the fact that things have gotten warmer, and even given the amount of warming we’ve seen in the region due to climate change, this event still came up as a highly, highly unusual event,” said Karen McKinnon, assistant professor of statistics and the environment at UCLA. She couldn’t name any other 10,000-year events. The heat dome sat over the Pacific Northwest for several days in June 2021, smothering the region with temperatures that sometimes soared 30 degrees above normal.

加州大学洛杉矶分校环境统计学助理教授凯伦·麦金农表示:“考虑到气候变暖的事实，甚至在气候变化影响下我们目睹了该地区升温的幅度，这仍然是一件特别特别不寻常的事。”她想不到其他1万年才发生一次的事。2021年6月，热穹在太平洋西北部持续了几天，气温有时比正常水平高出30度，令人感到窒息。

It eclipsed previous highs by hitting 116 degrees Fahrenheit in Portland, Ore.; 107 F in Seattle; and 121 F in Lytton, British Columbia. All three readings set all-time records (Climatewire, June 29, 2021). Hundreds of people died in the oppressive heat, which can shut down human organs and exacerbate underlying conditions. A wildfire destroyed Lytton shortly after the heat wave. But only a few degrees of those blistering temperatures can be blamed on climate change, McKinnon said, noting that large swings in temperature are not unheard of in the Pacific Northwest. Summertime daily maximum temperatures in the region have increased by almost a half-degree Fahrenheit per decade since 1960, the UCLA study said.

俄勒冈州波特兰市的气温达到了116华氏度，西雅图为107华氏度；不列颠哥伦比亚省利顿的气温则高达121华氏度，一律超过此前的最高气温。这三个温度都创下了历史记录（Climatewire气候快线，2021年6月29日）。数百人在酷暑中死亡，高温会导致人体器官衰竭，并加剧潜在疾病。热浪过后不久，一场野火摧毁了利顿。但麦金农表示，这难以忍受的高温天气，能归咎于气候变化的其实只有几度，并指出在太平洋西北地区，温度大幅波动并非闻所未闻。加州大学洛杉矶分校的研究表明，自1960年以来，该地区夏季日最高温度每十年上升近0.5华氏度。

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