Why Predicting Our Future Feelings Is So Difficult 为什么预测我们未来的感受这么难？，今天小编就来聊一聊关于数据库什么时候可以洗牌?接下来我们就一起去研究一下吧!
数据库什么时候可以洗牌
Why Predicting Our Future Feelings Is So Difficult 为什么预测我们未来的感受这么难？
Claudia Hammond克劳迪娅·哈蒙德
here's a lot of talk at the moment about the new normal and how we might feel about one day going back to a busy office or to the gym or to the theatre. Some say that they can't imagine doing some of those things ever again， let alone dancing in a packed club or greeting friends with a hug and kiss.
When we try to predict how we will feel in the future， we naturally try to use the past as a guide. That can work well， except that we have a bias in our thinking towards the recent past. So， if we imagine what a train journey might be like next year， rather than focussing on the hundreds of train journeys we've made over the years， we can't help but consider our most recent trip.
And if that was on a train where masked people were looking slightly nervous， that will be paramount in our minds when we think of a journey in the future， even though we have no idea how long we will need to wear masks for.
We can't help but concentrate on how we feel right now. When patients with chronic headaches describe the intensity of their pain， their descriptions are more swayed by the intensity of their headache the previous day than their intensity in general. If you ask people how much they would enjoy at bowl of spaghetti bolognese the following day， the hungrier they happen to feel at the moment when you ask them， the more they say they'd like it.
The Harvard University psychologist Dan Gilbert has found that when we consider events our cognitive processes favour the extreme， the first and the most recent. This is known as the “impact bias” and it also causes us to focus on the chief features of an event， so if we're heading for a pub lunch in the countryside， we might imagine the moment we're sitting in the sunshine in a pretty garden eating our food. We're less likely to picture the journey to get there， the search for a pub with a free table outside，the feeling of hungry impatience if there's a long wait for the food and the possibility of a long traffic jam on the way home.
When we expect an event in the future to be positive， we tend to the focus on the good bits， but when it's likely to be negative， the bad bits overshadow our expectations. So we imagine everything about going to the dentist will be terrible， while some of it like chatting to the receptionist or hanging your coat up or leaving will be fairly neutral and in fact the worst bits may only last for a few moments.
But the impact bias can lead us to make the wrong decisions. We might imagine that a new job with a modest pay rise will change our lives. If it takes away the stress of constant money worries then it might. Your friends will congratulate you， but when it comes to maximising your happiness， if you were already managing financially， loved your old job， knew the ropes and were good friends with your colleagues， it might not be the best move.
We also have a tendency to overestimate the strength of our emotions in the future. In a study where students in the US were asked to predict how they'd feel if their college football team won or lost their next match and were then asked how they actually felt a few days later， they had both overestimated their happiness at winning and their disappointment at losing. This is because they forgot all the other things that would also happen in a day that would also influence their mood for better or worse.
In the next year many of us will experience a series of firsts in a world fighting a pandemic – going back to an office perhaps， or maybe going on a plane. From psychological research we know that the first time will feel strangest， especially during those initial 10 minutes. But humans are ever-adaptable and we will quickly become accustomed to our new way of life. The second time won't be quite as strange.
眼下有很多关于新常态以及我们可能会对有朝一日重返繁忙办公室、健身房或剧院作何感受的议论。一些人说，他们无法想象再次做其中一些事情，更别提在拥挤的俱乐部跳舞或以拥抱和亲吻来问候朋友了。
当我们试图预测自己未来的感受时，我们自然会试图以过去为鉴。这行之有效，只是我们的思维会偏向于最近的过去。因此，若要想象明年一次火车旅行可能会是什么样子，我们并不会聚焦于自己多年来的数百次火车旅行，而是不由会考虑最近的旅行。
如果那是在一趟人们戴着口罩、略显紧张的火车上，那么当我们想到未来的旅程时，那将是我们脑海中最重要的画面，尽管我们并不知道口罩需要戴多久。
我们不由会将注意力集中于自己当下的感受。当慢性头痛患者描述自己的疼痛程度时，他们的描述在更大程度上会受前一天的头痛程度而不是通常情况下的头痛程度影响。如果你问别人他们第二天有多想吃一碗意式肉酱面，那么他们在你提问时碰巧越觉得饿，就越会表示自己很想吃。
哈佛大学心理学家丹·吉尔伯特发现，当我们考虑事件时，我们的认知过程会偏向极端、第一次和最近的经历。这被称为“影响偏差”，它还令我们注重事件的主要特征，因此，如果我们正要去一家乡村酒馆吃午餐，那我们可能会想象自己坐在漂亮花园里晒着太阳吃东西的时刻。我们不太可能会想象前往那里的旅程、找寻一家户外有空桌的酒馆的过程、食物需要等很久时饿得不耐烦的感觉，还有回程遇到大塞车的可能性。
当我们预期未来一个事件会是积极的时，我们往往会聚焦于好的方面，但当一个事件很可能是消极的时，坏的方面会给我们的预期蒙上阴影。因此，我们会想象与看牙医有关的一切都很糟糕，虽然其中一些部分在很大程度上平平淡淡，比如与接待员聊天、挂起你的外套或者离开，事实上，最糟糕的部分可能只持续一会儿。
但影响偏差会促使我们做出错误的决定。我们可能设想一份薪酬略有提高的新工作会改变我们的生活。如果这份新工作能消除持续存在的金钱担忧所带来的压力，那么它或许会改变我们的生活。你的朋友会向你表示祝贺，但就幸福最大化而言，如果你已经在经济上能够应付，热爱你的旧工作，在工作中熟门熟路，并且跟同事是好朋友，那么它可能并不是你的最佳选择。
我们也往往会高估自己未来情感的强烈程度。一项研究曾要美国学生预测自己在本校橄榄球队赢得或输掉下一场比赛时的感受，然后在几天后询问他们的实际感受，研究发现，他们既高估了赢的快乐，又高估了输的沮丧。这是因为他们忘记了一天中也会发生的所有其他事情，这些事情也会对他们的情绪带来或好或坏的影响。
接下来一年，我们中的许多人将会经历这个抗疫世界中的一系列第一次——也许是回到办公室，也许是乘坐飞机。我们从心理学研究中得知，第一次会让人感觉最奇怪，尤其是在最初的10分钟。但人类能不断适应，我们很快就会习惯新的生活方式。第二次就不会那么奇怪了。（李莎译自英国广播公司网站8月26日文章）
来源：参考消息网
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