Problems of Balance of Payments Disequilibria
国际收支不平衡的问题
What is the difference between trade deficit, Current account deficit and balance of payments deficit? 贸易逆差、经常项目逆差和国际收支逆差之间的区别是什么？
Many students get very confused with all the different names for the different deficits. This little section should clear things up.
许多学生对不同赤字的不同名称感到非常困惑。这个小节应该能把事情弄清楚。
The trade deficit 贸易逆差The trade deficit is the deficit on the 'trade in goods' section of the current account. Newspaper columnists often refer to it as trade deficit, or trade gap, because it is a shorter, more, user-friendly, term. Do not] confuse the term 'trade deficit' with 'budget deficit' (as many students do). Budget deficit is to do with government taxes and spending. If a government spends more than they collect in taxes over a given year, then their budget is in deficit (hence the term).
贸易逆差是经常账户中 "货物贸易 "部分的赤字。报纸专栏作家经常把它称为贸易赤字，或贸易差距，因为它是一个更短、更方便的术语。不要]将 "贸易赤字 "与 "预算赤字 "混为一谈（许多学生这样做）。预算赤字是与政府的税收和支出有关的。如果一个政府在某一年的支出超过了他们的税收，那么他们的预算就会出现赤字（因此该术语）。
The current account deficit 经常账户赤字The current account deficit is the more obvious one - it's where imports of goods, services, investment income and transfers exceed the exports of goods, services, investment income and transfers.
经常账户赤字是比较明显的--它是指商品、服务、投资收入和转让的进口超过商品、服务、投资收入和转让的出口。
Some newspaper columnists refer to a balance of payments deficit. As you know, the balance of payments always balances (see the first Learn-It of this topic) so this term doesn't really make any sense. What they mean when they use this term is that certain sections of the balance of payments are in deficit, causing disequilibria. In particular, they tend to be referring to current account deficits, or sometimes trade deficits. You need to read the context of the text in questions carefully to make sure you understand what type of deficit is actually being referred to when the term 'balance of payments deficit' is being used.
一些报纸专栏作家提到了国际收支逆差。如你所知，国际收支总是平衡的（见本主题的第一个学习内容），所以这个术语实际上没有任何意义。他们使用这个术语的意思是，国际收支的某些部分出现了赤字，导致不平衡。特别是，他们往往指的是经常账户赤字，或者有时是贸易赤字。你需要仔细阅读问题中文本的上下文，以确保你了解当使用 "国际收支赤字 "一词时，实际上指的是哪种类型的赤字。
Does a current account deficit matter? 经常账户赤字是否重要？
In the last Learn-It we looked at the UK's balance of payments situation and found that the UK tends to record deficits in the current account. Over the long term, the UK does not 'pay its way' in terms of earning enough foreign currency from its exports to pay for its imports. But does this really matter?
在上一期的学习中，我们研究了英国的国际收支状况，发现英国的经常账户往往会出现赤字。从长期来看，英国并没有从出口中赚取足够的外汇来支付其进口的费用。但这真的重要吗？
In the 50s and 60s, when the UK was still part of a fixed, but adjustable, exchange rate system, current account deficits were seen as disastrous given the likely consequences in terms of a devalued pound and future high inflation. Some even say that a series of poor trade figures lost Wilson (the sitting Labour Prime Minister) the 1970 General Election (or was it the fact that England, as holders, lost in the quarter finals of the World Cup to Germany. They were 2-0 up and decided to 'rest' Bobby Charlton, their best player)! And yet the deficits were in millions in those days, now they are in billions!
在50年代和60年代，当英国仍然是固定但可调整的汇率体系的一部分时，鉴于英镑贬值和未来高通货膨胀的可能后果，经常账户赤字被视为灾难性的。有些人甚至说，一系列糟糕的贸易数据使威尔逊（现任工党首相）在1970年大选中失利（或者是英格兰作为持有者在世界杯四分之一决赛中输给了德国的事实。他们在2-0领先的情况下，决定让他们最好的球员博比-查尔顿 "休息"！）。然而，在那些日子里，赤字是数以百万计的，而现在则是数以亿计的!
Nowadays, many economists believe that current account deficits do not matter as long as they can be financed through the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI), especially now that the pound floats against all other currencies. So do current account deficits matter?
如今，许多经济学家认为，只要能通过吸引外国直接投资（FDI）来融资，经常账户赤字并不重要，特别是现在英镑对所有其他货币的浮动。那么，经常账户赤字是否重要？
Why deficits do matter? 为什么赤字确实重要？Competitiveness problems 竞争力问题
Current account deficits reflect the UK's poor competitiveness internationally. If UK firms are struggling to compete internationally in terms of exporting goods, this will be a problem in the future given that the UK exports nearly a quarter of its GDP relative to less than 10% in Japan and the USA.
经常账户赤字反映了英国在国际上的竞争力差。如果英国公司在出口商品方面难以在国际上竞争，这将是未来的一个问题，因为相对于日本和美国的不到10%，英国的出口占其GDP近四分之一。
Opponents would say that the UK's uncompetitiveness doesn't matter as long as the deficit can be financed in the UK. This may be easy enough at the moment, but may not be true if the deficits become extremely large. Also, the inflows of capital that finance these deficits are notoriously fickle. The tap can be turned off just as easily as it has recently been turned up.
反对者会说，只要赤字能在英国境内融资，英国的不竞争力就不重要。这在目前可能很容易，但如果赤字变得非常大，就不一定是真的了。此外，为这些赤字提供资金的资本流入是出了名的变化无常。水龙头可以被关闭，就像它最近被打开一样容易。
In smaller countries with less sophisticated capital markets, sustained deficits are a real problem. Countries that 'lend' them money (through the capital account surplus) will expect to get their money back with interest at some point. If this money does not appear to be forthcoming over the medium term, the lending country may demand to have their money back, and other countries will be less likely to lend further sums of money.
在资本市场不太成熟的小国，持续赤字是一个真正的问题。那些（通过资本账户盈余）"借 "给他们钱的国家会期望在某个时候连本带利地拿回他们的钱。如果这些钱在中期内似乎无法得到，借出的国家可能会要求拿回他们的钱，而其他国家将不太可能再借出钱。
This certainly happened in Africa when Western banks stopped lending money because they couldn't see when they would get paid back. In fact, some of them never did! Of course, some African countries have never really recovered from this. They can't borrow to import capital goods to make their own goods. They certainly can't afford to import consumer goods, and it is difficult to be self-sufficient with such meagre natural resources.
这种情况在非洲确实发生过，当时西方银行停止了借钱，因为他们不知道什么时候能得到回报。事实上，他们中的一些人从来没有这样做过! 当然，一些非洲国家从未真正从中恢复过来。他们不能借钱进口资本货物来制造自己的货物。他们当然也负担不起进口消费品，而且在自然资源如此贫乏的情况下很难做到自给自足。
Will the service sector make up for manufacturing in the long term? 从长远来看，服务业能否弥补制造业的不足？Given that the main reason the UK has current account deficits is that its trade deficits (trade in goods deficits) are huge, the question above can be rephrased to ask, does a trade deficit matter?
鉴于英国有经常账户赤字的主要原因是其贸易赤字（货物贸易赤字）巨大，上面的问题可以改口问，贸易赤字重要吗？
Another argument as to why these trade deficits do not matter is the feeling that the expanding service sector will create enough jobs to replace those lost in the manufacturing sector, and earn enough foreign currency to pay for the continuing trade deficits.
关于这些贸易赤字无所谓的另一个论点是，人们觉得不断扩大的服务业将创造足够的就业机会，以取代制造业中失去的就业机会，并赚取足够的外汇来支付持续的贸易逆差。
Some economists find this difficult to accept. To start with, the absolute values of goods and services exported are vastly different. The value of UK exports of services is only about a third of the value of UK exports of goods. Therefore the service sector has to expand much more quickly for any given contraction of the manufacturing sector.
一些经济学家认为这是难以接受的。首先，出口的商品和服务的绝对价值有很大的不同。英国的服务出口价值只有英国商品出口价值的三分之一左右。因此，对于制造业的任何收缩，服务部门的扩张速度都要快得多。
Also, given that the UK's surplus in services is in only a few areas (financial, engineering and computing services) and with only a few countries (the US, Germany and Japan) it would take a bold man to predict that these surpluses in services will keep making up for deficits in goods. It would be especially worrying if these three countries improve their productivity in these services as much as they have done in the past in the manufacturing sector.
此外，鉴于英国的服务盈余只存在于少数领域（金融、工程和计算服务），而且只有少数国家（美国、德国和日本），因此需要一个大胆的人去预测这些服务盈余将不断弥补货物的赤字。如果这三个国家像过去在制造业领域那样提高其在这些服务领域的生产力，这将是特别令人担忧的。
One must not forget the link between the manufacturing sector and the service sector. If a car plant is closed, all the service sector businesses that depend on the incomes of these car workers will suffer. This is more of a local problem, though. Most of the services that trade internationally are based on the 'knowledge' economy rather than restaurants and entertainment services that are available in a manufacturing town.
我们不能忘记制造部门和服务部门之间的联系。如果一个汽车厂关闭了，所有依赖这些汽车工人收入的服务部门企业都会受到影响。不过，这更像是一个局部问题。国际贸易中的大多数服务都是基于 "知识 "经济，而不是制造业城镇中的餐馆和娱乐服务。
The good thing about deficits on the trade in goods account (which is the main reason for the current account deficits) is that, in a sense, they allow consumers' standard of living to increase. Most of the exciting consumer goods that people aspire to own nowadays, like new digital TVs, computers, white goods (fridges, freezers, etc.), computer games, etc., are produced elsewhere.
货物贸易账户的赤字（这是经常账户赤字的主要原因）的好处是，在某种意义上，它们允许消费者的生活水平提高。现在人们渴望拥有的大多数令人兴奋的消费品，如新的数字电视、电脑、白色家电（冰箱、冰柜等）、电脑游戏等，都是其他地方生产的。
Importing for future growth 为未来增长而进口
Deficits do not matter if the excess of imports is financing future economic growth. Imports of capital goods may increase the trade deficit in the short run, but there will be longer term benefits in terms of increased domestic production and exports. As long as the economy as a whole is growing faster as an annual percentage in real terms than the current account deficit is a percentage of GDP then the deficit will not be a problem.
如果过量的进口是为未来的经济增长提供资金，那么赤字并不重要。资本货物的进口在短期内可能会增加贸易赤字，但在增加国内生产和出口方面会有长期的好处。只要整个经济的年度实际增长速度快于经常账户赤字占国内生产总值的百分比，那么赤字就不会成为问题。
The growth of services and investment income 服务业和投资收入的增长
Some economists think that the surpluses in services and investment income will continue and, to a certain extent, cover the deficits in goods. As you can tell from the discussion in the 'Why deficits matter' section above, opinions are divided on the extent to which this will happen.
一些经济学家认为，服务和投资收入的盈余将继续下去，并在一定程度上弥补货物的赤字。从上面 "为什么赤字重要 "一节的讨论中可以看出，人们对这种情况的发生程度有不同看法。
The ease with which the UK attracts foreign capital 英国吸引外国资本的难易程度
The main argument for not worrying about trade deficits (and therefore current account deficits) is that, due to the reasons given in the last Learn It, the UK attracts a lot of inflows of capital (FDI as well as short term 'hot money'). As long as the UK can keep attracting capital inflows, giving capital account surpluses, then the current account deficits will be easily financed.
不担心贸易赤字（以及经常账户赤字）的主要论点是，由于上一节中给出的原因，英国吸引了大量的资本流入（外国直接投资以及短期的 "热钱"）。只要英国能够继续吸引资本流入，使资本账户出现盈余，那么经常账户赤字就会很容易得到融资。
This certainly seems to be the consensus view nowadays. In the 50s and 60s, the announcement of trade figures was as big as the announcement of the current Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on interest rates once a month. Bad trade figures caused a run on the pound causing further problems for inflation. The markets have barely noticed recent huge trade deficits.
这当然似乎是现在的共识。在50年代和60年代，贸易数字的公布与目前货币政策委员会（MPC）每月一次的利率公布一样大。糟糕的贸易数据造成了对英镑的挤兑，给通货膨胀带来了进一步的问题。市场几乎没有注意到最近的巨大贸易赤字。
The value of the pound nowadays depends much more on the supply and demand for currencies based on short and long term capital flows. The currency used to buy and sell goods and services represents a tiny fraction of daily currency transactions. Whilst daily foreign exchange turnover in the UK is more than 400 billion pounds (!), the total value of goods imported in to the UK is around 200 billion pounds a year!
如今，英镑的价值更多地取决于基于短期和长期资本流动的货币供求关系。用于购买和出售商品和服务的货币只占日常货币交易的极小部分。虽然英国每天的外汇交易额超过4000亿英镑（！），但英国每年进口的商品总值约为2000亿英镑！在过去的日子里，当资本市场出现问题时，英国的资本市场就会出现问题。
In the old days, when capital markets were restricted through exchange controls, most currency transactions were facilitating trade. A current account deficit meant that the UK was demanding more foreign currency to buy imports than foreigners were demanding the pound to buy UK exports. The value of the pound inevitably fell. Export prices fell and import prices rose, relatively, which helped solve the trade problem, but the higher import prices pushed up the inflation rate. See the topic called 'Exchange rates' for much more detail on how the value of the pound is determined.
在过去，当资本市场通过外汇管制受到限制时，大多数货币交易是为了促进贸易。经常账户赤字意味着，英国需要更多的外汇来购买进口商品，而外国人需要英镑来购买英国的出口商品。英镑的价值不可避免地下降。出口价格下降，进口价格相对上升，这有助于解决贸易问题，但较高的进口价格推高了通货膨胀率。关于英镑的价值是如何确定的，请参见 "汇率 "专题，以了解更多细节。
The relative size of the deficit 赤字的相对规模
One final point to note. When economists talk about the 'huge' predicted trade deficit of 25 to 30 billion pounds for the year 2000 (much of which is likely to be offset by surpluses in the rest of the current account anyway), it is always wise to look at this figure in relative terms. 25 billion pounds represents barely 3.5% of GDP. The overall current account deficit is likely to be well under 1% of GDP. Does this really matter?
最后要注意的一点是。当经济学家谈论2000年250亿到300亿英镑的 "巨大 "预测贸易赤字时（其中大部分可能被经常账户其他部分的盈余所抵消），从相对角度看这个数字总是明智的。250亿英镑仅占国内生产总值的3.5%。整体经常账户赤字可能远低于GDP的1%。这真的重要吗？
What is wrong with a current account surplus? 经常账户盈余有什么问题？
If you go to university, you will soon get used to the concepts of surplus and, in particular, deficits. One is, of course, referring to your student bank account. Being overdrawn, or in deficit financially, is obviously a bad thing. Having a surplus, or being in the 'black', is obviously a much better position to find oneself in.
如果你上了大学，你很快就会习惯盈余，特别是赤字的概念。当然，一个是指你的学生银行账户。透支，或在财务上出现赤字，显然是一件坏事。拥有盈余，或处于 "黑色 "状态，显然是一个更好的位置来发现自己。
This 'surplus is good', 'deficit is bad' mantra does not really apply to balance of payments current accounts (as opposed to a Barclays or NatWest current account!). There are a number of reasons why a current account surplus is as bad as a current account deficit.
这种 "盈余是好事"，"赤字是坏事 "的说法并不适用于国际收支往来账户（相对于巴克莱银行或NatWest银行的往来账户而言！）。有许多原因可以解释为什么经常账户盈余和经常账户赤字一样糟糕。
The lack of consumption 消费的缺乏If a country has a large current account surplus (like Japan) then domestic consumption is sacrificed. It's a bit like being a saver rather than a borrower. The saver is being very virtuous and probably has a much more secure future. The borrower is borrowing to spend. He has more fun today, possibly at the expense of hardship tomorrow.
如果一个国家有大量的经常账户盈余（如日本），那么国内消费就会被牺牲掉。这有点像做一个储蓄者而不是借款人。储蓄者是非常贤惠的，可能有一个更安全的未来。借钱的人是借钱来消费。他今天有更多的乐趣，可能是以明天的困难为代价。
Japan's large current account surplus means it has a large capital account deficit. In other words, it is investing lots of money abroad (or saving). The huge amount of exports could have been diverted to domestic consumption, or they could have imported more goods, but they have chosen not to. The Japanese love saving and seem to hate spending.
日本庞大的经常账户盈余意味着它有一个庞大的资本账户赤字。换句话说，它在国外投资了很多钱（或储蓄）。大量的出口可以转用于国内消费，或者他们可以进口更多的商品，但他们选择不这样做。日本人喜欢储蓄，似乎讨厌支出。
Also, Japan's huge current account surplus has implications for the rest of the world. Just like one country's balance of payments always balances, the world balance of payments has to balance. This means that if Japan is running a big current account surplus, other countries must be running deficits. It is not a coincidence that the USA has the largest deficit in the world. On these grounds, if you believe that current account deficits are bad, then big surpluses have to be bad as well.
另外，日本巨大的经常账户盈余对世界其他国家也有影响。就像一个国家的国际收支总是平衡一样，世界的国际收支也必须平衡。这意味着，如果日本有大量的经常账户盈余，其他国家一定会有赤字。美国拥有世界上最大的赤字，这不是巧合。基于这些理由，如果你认为经常账户赤字是坏事，那么大额盈余也一定是坏事。
The refusal of Japan to allow the USA to export more into Japan has caused conflict. If a protectionist trade war results, everybody will be worse off.
日本拒绝让美国向日本出口更多的产品，这引起了冲突。如果保护主义贸易战的结果，每个人的情况都会更糟。
Implications for the exchange rate 对汇率的影响An excessive current account surplus will eventually cause the value of the currency to rise. Whilst it was stated earlier that trade in goods and services accounts for a much smaller proportion of currency trading nowadays, significant and prolonged surpluses and deficits will eventually affect the exchange rate.
过多的经常账户盈余最终会导致货币价值的上升。虽然前面说过货物和服务贸易在现在的货币交易中占的比例要小得多，但重大和长期的盈余和赤字最终会影响汇率。
In the early 80s, the UK finally started to reap the benefits of North Sea Oil. The UK became a net exporter of oil and the current account was in surplus. In those days, capital flows had only just been freed up, so the effect of these surpluses was to push the value of the pound to high levels. Although this is good for keeping the inflation rate down, it does make exports relatively more expensive abroad. This made the UK's manufacturing industries more uncompetitive just as the UK was falling into one of the worst recessions since the Second World War.
在80年代初，英国终于开始收获北海石油的好处。英国成为石油的净出口国，经常账户出现了盈余。在那些日子里，资本流动才刚刚被释放出来，所以这些盈余的效果是把英镑的价值推到高位。虽然这对保持通货膨胀率有好处，但它确实使出口在国外相对更昂贵。这使得英国的制造业更加缺乏竞争力，而此时英国正陷入自第二次世界大战以来最严重的经济衰退之一。
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