苏格兰独立的可行性（每日外刊0310-关于苏格兰独立的斗争似乎陷入了僵局）

背景知识

全称为“大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国”的英国是个不折不扣的联合国家，苏格兰、英格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰是其国家领土构成的四个部分。然而，各有诉求、利益不均的四个地区，虽身处一个国家体系，但脱离英国的呼声却从未停歇。新冠疫情爆发后，面对英国中央政府“全民免疫”的不负责任做法，有着抗争历史传统的苏格兰更是掀起了一股“脱英”的狂潮。据英国《星期日泰晤士报》报道，近期的民意调查显示，有54%的苏格兰民众表示支持脱离英国。

苏格兰独立的可行性（每日外刊0310-关于苏格兰独立的斗争似乎陷入了僵局）(1)

正文阅读

The fight over Scottish independence appears to be deadlocked

关于苏格兰独立的斗争似乎陷入了僵局

In recent years, the disintegration of the United Kingdom has sometimes seemed nigh. Scottish independence was a “very high probability”, wrote one fund manager in January 2021. A few months later Citi, a bank, put the odds of separation at 35% within a decade. Some senior Tories thought a break-up was near-inescapable. Scots rejected independence in a referendum in 2014 by 55% to 45%. Yet within years a remarkable second chance seemed to be on the cards for nationalists, as the Scottish electorate was buffeted by three shocks: Brexit, Boris Johnson’s elevation to prime minister and covid-19, each of which threatened to reshape public opinion in favour of independence.

近年来，联合王国（英国）的解体有时似乎近在咫尺。一位基金经理在2021年1月写道，苏格兰独立的可能性“非常高”。几个月后，花旗银行认为10年内分裂的可能性为35%。一些资深的保守党人认为分裂几乎是不可避免的。在2014年的全民公投中，苏格兰人以55%对45%的投票结果拒绝独立。然而，数年内，苏格兰选民遭受了三次冲击：英国退欧、鲍里斯·约翰逊当选英国首相和新冠疫情，这三次冲击都有可能重塑公众舆论，使之倾向于独立，民族主义者似乎有望获得第二次机会。

These days senior Scottish Conservatives are in a bullish mood. Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has sustained the Scottish National Party (SNP) as a dominant force. It has been in power in Scotland since 2007 and holds 45 of Scotland’s 59 seats in the House of Commons. Ms Sturgeon vows to hold a second referendum on independence in 2023.

这些天来，苏格兰保守党的高层人士情绪乐观。苏格兰首席部长尼古拉·斯特金维持了苏格兰民族党(SNP)的主导地位。该党自2007年以来一直在苏格兰执政，在苏格兰下议院的59个席位中拥有45个席位。斯特金女士发誓要在2023年举行第二次独立公投。

Yet the shocks have not shifted opinion all that much, and British ministers now think the union has weathered its moment of maximum danger. Scots would vote against divorce by 51% to 49%, excluding “don’t knows”, according to polling for The Economist by Savanta ComRes. Just a third of Scots want a referendum in the next two years.

然而，这些冲击并没有改变人们的看法，并且英国的部长们现在认为，英国已经渡过了最危险的时刻。根据Savanta ComRes为《经济学人》所做的民意调查，不包括“弃权票”，苏格兰人民以51%对49%的结果反对苏格兰独立。只有三分之一的苏格兰人希望在未来两年内举行公投。

今日单词