自特朗普挑起“贸易战”以来，一把利剑就悬在全球市场的头上。
中美两国公布的征税商品规模越变越大，股市震荡，世界经济的不确定性与日俱增。
而翻一翻近期的外媒，我们发现，挑起这场战火的特朗普这次真可谓失道寡助！
“贸易战”还没有真正打起来，最先遭到炮轰的，就是特朗普。
特朗普把贸易当赌博
《金融时报》4月6日发表的评论文章《历史证明，要赢贸易战希望渺茫》（“History holds little hope of a winnable trade war”）一针见血地道出了特朗普的赌徒心理：
“When you’re already $500bn DOWN, you can’t lose.” Donald Trump’s tweet earlier this week was a neat summary of the US president’s approach to trade:
“当你已经损失了5000亿美元，你绝不能输！”特朗普本周早些时候的这条推特简明扼要地概括了这位总统对待贸易的态度：
it combined economic illiteracy with the fallacy of an addicted gambler.
这是一种对经济的无知，夹带着上瘾赌徒的谬见。
illiteracy：文盲、无知
fallacy：谬误
特朗普推特中说的5000亿美元，指的是美国对华的贸易逆差。
CNBC也评论称，这场“贸易战”是特朗普置一切于不顾的赌博。
特朗普与中国的关税豪赌可能对美国经济、共和党，以及他自己的总统生涯带来毁灭性灾难
GOP：大老党，Grand Old Party的缩写，是美国共和党的别称
文章称，特朗普赌上了自己的总统生涯来迫使中国让步：
Donald Trump has decided to gamble his presidency on the idea that he can threaten big tariffs on China and force the world's second-largest economy to back down.
特朗普决定赌上自己的总统生涯，希望用巨额关税威胁到中国，并迫使世界第二大经济体让步。
特朗普向来爱用恐吓对手的方式来处理问题：
The president is approaching this like he does everything else, by talking tough and expecting his opponent to give in.
特朗普在处理这件事上用了放狠话这一惯用手段，希望能以此让对手认输。
只不过这次，前景并不乐观。作者Ben White帮特朗普分析了一下，如果输了，他会赔上哪些东西：
If he fails — and the odds are that he will — the fallout from a tariff battle with China could derail an otherwise strong U.S. economy, threaten Republican majorities in the midterm elections and turn the second half of Trump's first term into a dismal slog to avoid impeachment votes.
如果他输了的话——他很可能会输——与中国的关税战可能使原本坚挺的美国经济脱轨，威胁到中期选举时共和党的多数席位，导致特朗普的第一届任期后半段处境凄凉、举步维艰，拼命想办法避免弹劾投票。
当然，特朗普也不是全无准备，他在4月6日的广播采访中承认，这次贸易摩擦会带来一些“小疼痛”（"a little pain"）……
文章提醒说，这些“小疼痛”可是会变成一场共和党的“大血洗”（bloodbath）的哦：
That little bit of pain could turn into a midterm election bloodbath for Trump's Republicans if things go wrong.
如果事情发展出了偏差，那些小疼痛可能会使特朗普的共和党人遭受中期选举大血洗。
当然，不要忘了，还有来自中国的“大礼包”：
The Chinese have other ways of exacting pain, including making life difficult for U.S. companies operating in China, limiting Chinese tourism to the U.S., as well as curtailing the number of Chinese students who attend and pay full tuition at American colleges and universities. China could also reduce holdings in U.S. debt.
中国还有别的方式让你承受痛苦，包括让在中国的美国公司过不好日子，限制中国人赴美旅行，还有减少在美国大学付全额学费的中国留学生数量。中国还可能减持美国债务。
curtail：减少，缩减
总之，这场豪赌，特朗普凶多吉少。
共和党内部怨声载道
据CNBC报道，共和党内部也是怨声载道，内布拉斯加州（Nebraska）共和党参议员Ben Sasse说：
"Hopefully the president is just blowing off steam again but, if he's even half-serious, this is nuts."
“希望又只是总统在耍脾气，但他哪怕只有一半是认真的，这也够的上疯癫了。”
blow off steam：发脾气，发泄
"He's threatening to light American agriculture on fire."
“他这是要把美国农业推向火海啊。”
CNBC的评论用了极具画面感的句子来描述共和党们这两天抓狂的心情：
Republicans in Washington are tearing their hair out over Trump's approach.
因为特朗普走的这招险棋，华盛顿的共和党们已经急得快把头发扯光了……
tear one's hair out：形容焦躁不安、绝望
共和党们埋怨特朗普，选择那么多，却偏偏走极端路线。
He could be highlighting the strong economy, low unemployment rate and boost from the GOP tax cut bill.
他本可以突出坚挺的经济、低的失业率、共和党减税法案带来的繁荣。
Instead, he's injected massive volatility into the stock market, ratcheting up uncertainty for companies that export to and do business in China and threatening to worsen inflation through higher consumer prices.
结果他却反其道而行，给股市带来巨大动荡，为出口中国及在中国做生意的公司带来更多不确定性，还威胁用更高的居民消费价格恶化通胀。
ratchet up：提高，加剧
自己照照镜子吧
《彭博社》头脑清醒，刊文称，特朗普不从自己身上找原因，却总是把中国揪出来当“坏人”：
President Donald Trump continues to single out China as the villain in the great American tragedy, when in fact he should take a careful look in the mirror.
本应是自己好好照照镜子，特朗普却执意把中国拎出来当成美国悲剧的元凶。
single out：挑出
耶鲁大学高级研究员、经济学家史蒂芬·罗奇（Stephen Roach）在这篇题为《与中国对美国的需求相比，美国更需要中国》的评论文章中分析了特朗普需要照镜子反省的几点：
❶ First of all, he continues to insist that the U.S.-China trade deficit is $500 billion, fully one-third larger than the actual figure of $375 billion published by the Commerce Department.
首先，特朗普一直坚称，美中贸易逆差是5000亿美元，这比美商务部公布的实际数字3750亿美元多了1/3。
❷ Second, data from the OECD and the World Trade Organization suggests at least 40% of this bilateral imbalance reflects supply-chain effects of components and parts that are produced outside of China but assembled inside China.
其次，经合组织和世贸的数据都显示，美中双边贸易不平衡中的至少40%反应了零部件在国外生产、在中国国内组装的供应链效应。
That means, based on the value added of what is actually produced in China — the essence of the alleged China threat — that the 47% share of the U.S. deficit ascribed to China would be reduced to around 28%.
也就是说，基于在华实际生产产品的附加值——所谓中国威胁的核心，归在中国头上的47%的美国赤字应减少到约28%！
❸ Third, Trump’s budget deficits will make America’s trade problems worse. A low-saving U.S. economy can't square the circle without trade deficits.
最后，特朗普的预算赤字让美国贸易问题更加严重。低储蓄的美国经济如果不靠贸易赤字，更将难以为继。
square the circle：做办不到的事
为特朗普捉急
也许如前文《金融时报》所评价的，特朗普像个“经济文盲”，于是操碎了心的媒体们都在帮特朗普分析经济形势。
史蒂芬·罗奇在《彭博社》的文章中点出，特朗普完全没有认清一个现实：美国更加需要中国！
Not one to be outdone by any adversary, Donald Trump has upped the ante in a rapidly escalating trade war with China... In doing so, the Trump administration is failing to appreciate a crucial reality: The United States needs China more than China needs the U.S.
特朗普是个不愿被对手超越的人，在迅速升级的对华贸易战争中，他正加大赌注。特朗普政府这样行事，完全没能认清一个至关重要的现实：与中国对美国的需求相比，美国更需要中国。
adversary ['ædvəs(ə)rɪ] ：对手
ante ['æntɪ]：赌注
至于原因，作者作了如下精彩分析：
Yes, China is still an export-led economy, and the American consumer is its largest customer. But China’s export share of its gross domestic product has fallen from 37% in 2007 to slightly less than 20% today, an important outgrowth of a decade-long rebalancing. By drawing increased support from domestic demand, China is better able to withstand the pressure of tariffs and other actions that are aimed at its exporters.
不可否认，中国依然是出口导向经济体，而美国消费者是其最大客户。但是，出口份额在中国GDP中的占比已从2007年的37%下降到如今的不足20%，这是10年（经济）再平衡的重要结果。通过从内需中汲取更多支持，中国能更好地扛住那些针对其出口商的关税及其他行动带来的压力。
Not so with the United States. The U.S. depends heavily on China for providing the low-cost goods that enable income-constrained American consumers to make ends meet.
美国则不然。美国严重依赖中国提供的廉价商品，以满足其收入受限的消费者的需求。
The U.S. also depends on China to support its own exports; next to Mexico and Canada, China is America’s third largest and by far its most rapidly growing major export market.
与此同时，美国还要依靠中国来支持自己的出口。中国是继墨西哥和加拿大之后美国的第三大、也是迄今增长最迅速的出口市场。
And, of course, the U.S. depends on China to provide funding for its budget deficits. It is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities – some $1.3 trillion in direct ownership and at least another $250 billion of quasi-government paper. A lack of Chinese buying could turn the next Treasury auction into a rout.
而且，美国的财政赤字自然要靠中国输血。中国是美债的最大持有者——1.3万亿美元为直接持有，另有至少2500亿美元为准政府债券。若没有中国买入，下次美国财政部的债券拍卖将一败涂地。
rout [raʊt]：溃败
America depends on China because of a fundamental weakness in the structure of the U.S. economy -- a profound and worrisome lack of domestic saving.
美国之所以依赖中国，原因在于其经济结构中一个致命软肋——令人担忧的国内储蓄严重不足。
In the fourth quarter of 2017, the net domestic saving rate was just 1.3% of national income. Lacking in savings at home, and wanting to consume and grow, the U.S. must import surplus foreign saving from abroad – and run massive balance-of-payments and trade deficits to import this capital. In 2017, the United States had merchandise trade deficits with 102 nations!
2017年第四季度，美国净国内储蓄率仅为国民收入的1.3%。缺乏国内储蓄，又想拉动消费和经济增长，因此美国必须“进口”国外储蓄盈余——而且为获得这些资本，必须运作大量国际收支赤字和贸易赤字。2017年，美国与102个国家存在商品贸易赤字！
还有大量媒体从打贸易战的利害关系中分析特朗普是如何坑了美国……
美国为什么不能指望在“贸易战”中打败中国？
《西雅图时报》仔仔细细算了一笔账，根据各个行业的情况，说明特朗普挑起贸易战是如何有百害而无一利。
农业：
China’s tariffs on agricultural products can be expected to hurt farming states, many of which voted for Trump in 2016.
中国对美国农产品加征的关税将伤害农业州，而这些州很多都是特朗普2016年竞选时的票仓。
制造业：
U.S. manufacturing giants that sell products in China, such as Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, General Motors and Intel, are also expected to take a hit if China follows through on its threats.
如果中国将自己的反击付诸实践，那么那些将产品出售到中国的美国制造巨头也将受到重创，比如苹果、波音、卡特皮勒、通用汽车和因特尔。
可怜的美国公司，不光要受到中国施加的关税打击，还要被自己人伤害……
But Chinese tariffs aren’t the only ones that will hurt U.S. companies — Trump’s own import taxes could also be a self-inflicted wound.
但中国的关税不是唯一伤害美国公司利益的一方，特朗普的进口税也可能是在搬起石头砸自己的脚。
self-inflicted：自己造成的；加于自身的
His tariffs on steel and aluminum have already increased prices for U.S. manufacturers that use these metals as inputs.
他对钢铁和铝征收的关税已经抬高了使用这些材料的美国制造商的成本。
制药业：
Trump’s new round of tariffs would have similarly negative consequences for the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, which makes heavy use of ingredients produced abroad.
特朗普的新一轮关税加征将对美国的药品行业造成同样负面的影响，因为美国药品行业大量使用进口成分。
电力公司：
Trump’s taxes on power-generating equipment will hurt companies that build and operate power plants, while raising prices for electricity consumers.
特朗普对发电设备加征的关税将会损害建设运行发电厂的公司利益，老百姓的电费也会增加。
外媒看好中国
加拿大广播公司（CBCNews）采访了各路专家，得出一个结论：
特朗普发动“贸易战”，最终反而会使中国更加强大。
中国在贸易战中的优势，是一个庞大且更加成熟的经济体系
文章写道：
Rather than cowing China into submission with trade threats, experts who study international trade say, Trump may instead be hastening the day when the Asian giant supersedes the United States as the world's most influential economy.
国际贸易专家们认为，特朗普指望用贸易战威胁恐吓，让中国俯首帖耳，恐怕这只会加快这个亚洲巨人取代美国成为世界最有影响力经济体的步伐。
多伦多大学罗特曼商学院的国际商业教授Walid Hejazi认为，虽然贸易战会加剧中国国内通货膨胀，但也会刺激中国经济发展：
"Given there is a trade war, it can push China into doing things that could really help it over the longer term in terms of diversifying itself into Asia, into other markets, but also developing its domestic economy."
如果贸易战真的爆发，它会促使中国做一些从长远来讲对国家非常有益的事情，比如让自己更多元化地融入亚洲和其他市场，同时也更深入地发展自己的国内经济。
正如经济评论员Martin Wolf在《金融时报》中指出的：
"Consumption is at last becoming the most important driver of demand in the Chinese economy."
消费终于要成为中国经济需求中最重要的拉动力量。
Unlike the other so-called Asian tigers such as South Korea and Singapore, as domestic demand grows China can become less dependent on exports. Like the U.S., it will have the advantage of "economies of scale and a single market."
和韩国、新加坡等亚洲四小龙不同，随着内需的增长，中国对出口的依赖就会减少。和美国一样，中国将具备“规模经济和单一市场”的优势。
加拿大中国问题专家Jia Wang认为：
Beijing still depends on the U.S. for top quality exports such as Boeing's jetliners, but China has begun production of its own aircraft. A trade war, she says, will only encourage China to increase import substitution.
虽然中国仍然从美国进口高质量的产品，如波音飞机，但中国也开始制造自己的飞机了。一场贸易战只会促使中国增加别国的进口，来替代美国。
中国可以找替代，美国就没那么容易了，Jia Wang说：
"For the U.S. it's the massive amount of consumer goods — the clothing, the shoes, the household electronics, the computers and the phones."
对美国来说，这些进口产品是大量的消费品——衣服、鞋子、家电、电脑、手机。
Wang says the sheer volume of imports of inexpensive Chinese goods purchased by lower-class and poor Americans makes it almost impossible for the U.S. to replace those imports by making them at home.
这些被下层社会和贫穷人口购买的廉价中国商品数量太庞大，美国已不可能用国产制造来替代这些进口商品。
此外，中国在这场贸易战中的强硬立场也引发了国际关注。
CNBC在一篇报道中援引《中国日报》评论称：
"Trump has already proved himself wrong because China has demonstrated that it can't be coerced and is fully determined to reciprocate. It's really time for Trump to give up the useless tariff weapon and come to the negotiation table."
事实证明特朗普错了，因为中国已经表明自己不接受胁迫，并已下定决心全力反击。特朗普是时候放弃无用的关税武器，重回谈判桌了。
得道多助，失道寡助。
从各大媒体的态度来看，特朗普的单边主义政策已人心尽失，成为全球“公害”。是时候照照镜子，反思一下了。
编辑：左卓 李雪晴 唐晓敏
,
