美国为什么要去老龄化（每日外刊0810-老龄化时代）

背景知识

根据1956年联合国《人口老龄化及其社会经济后果》确定的划分标准，当一个国家或地区65岁及以上老年人口数量占总人口比例超过7%时，则意味着这个国家或地区进入老龄化。1982年维也纳老龄问题世界大会，确定60岁及以上老年人口占总人口比例超过10%，意味着这个国家或地区进入严重老龄化。

美国为什么要去老龄化（每日外刊0810-老龄化时代）(1)

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Can rich countries care for the old without going bust?

富裕国家能照顾老人而不破产吗？

“I am in a hurry,” says Conny Helder, a Dutch minister who juggles the portfolios of sport and care for the elderly. She is referring to the second half of her job. The number of Dutch people aged 75 and older is expected almost to double by 2040, to 2.5m. The proportion of Dutch GDP spent looking after the elderly is already among the highest in the world. Without big changes, it could double by 2050. The share of the workforce helping the sick and frail could rise from one-seventh to one-third, the government fears.

“我很着急，”荷兰大臣康尼·海尔德（Conny Helder）说，她同时兼顾体育和照顾老人。她着急，指的是她工作的后半部分。预计到2040年，75岁及以上的荷兰人口数量将增加近一倍，达到250万。荷兰照顾老年人的支出占GDP的比例已经位居世界前列。如果没有大的变化，到2050年可能会翻一番。政府担心，帮助病人和体弱者的劳动力比例可能会从七分之一上升到三分之一。

So, on July 4th, Ms Helder announced that the Netherlands would not carry on as before. In future, she said, old people will have to rely more on themselves and less on professional caregivers. Care in a nursing home, which costs the government one-fifth more than looking after people in their own houses, will be a last resort.

因此，7月4日，海尔德女士宣布荷兰不会像以前那样继续下去。她说，在未来，老年人将不得不更多地依靠自己，而不是专业护理人员。养老院的护理费用花费政府的钱，比在自己家里照顾病人的费用高出五分之一，因此养老院将是最后的手段。

The Netherlands is hardly alone in worrying about the coming stress on its finances. In North America and much of Europe the oldest baby-boomers are pushing 80. They will “stretch every part of the system” in America, says David Grabowski, a scholar at Harvard Medical School. Workers who take care of the elderly are ageing themselves. In the OECD, a club mainly of rich countries, their median age is 45, 18 months higher than that of all workers. Labour shortages, already a problem, are bound to get worse. To maintain the current ratio of care workers to people over 65 (which is one to 20), OECD countries would need to find 13.5m more care workers by 2040, a rise of 60%.

荷兰并不是唯一一个担心未来财政压力的国家。在北美和欧洲大部分地区，婴儿潮时期出生的人中年龄最大的已接近80岁。哈佛医学院的学者大卫·格拉博夫斯基（David Grabowski）说，他们将在美国“延伸到每一个系统的部分”。照顾老人的护工们自己也在变老。在主要由富裕国家组成的经合组织（OECD）中，他们年龄的中位数为45岁，比所有工人的平均年龄高出18个月。劳动力短缺已经是一个问题，而且肯定会变得更糟。想要维持目前护工与65岁以上人士的比例（即1比20），到2040年，经合组织（OECD）国家需要增加1350万名护工，增幅为60%。

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