碳市场周报（每日外刊0603-碳市场正在走向全球）

背景知识

近日，在由北京绿色交易所与EDF美国环保协会联合举办的“双碳目标下的自愿减排市场展望”圆桌论坛上，北京绿色交易所董事长王乃祥表示，作为国际上认可的减排信用，核证减排量CCER交易有望成为我国参与国际碳市场的排头兵。北京绿色交易所也正在积极推动全国自愿减排交易中心的建设，努力发展成为面向全球的国际级绿色交易所。

EDF美国环保协会北京代表处全球气候行动高级主管刘洪铭表示，2030年全球自愿减排市场规模的保守估值将达50亿至300亿美元之间，甚至可能达到500亿美元，未来自愿减排市场潜力巨大。

碳市场周报（每日外刊0603-碳市场正在走向全球）(1)

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Carbon markets are going global

碳市场正在走向全球

Carbon markets, for years short of puff, have at last become one of the most widespread tools in the fight against climate change. By the end of 2021 more than 21% of the world’s emissions were covered by some form of carbon pricing, up from 15% in 2020. Ever more businesses have to pay regulators for the right to release a tonne of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Investors are getting interested too: trading on these markets grew by 164% last year, to €760bn ($897bn).

多年来一直缺乏活力的碳市场终于成为应对气候变化最广泛的工具之一。到2021年底，全球超过21%的排放量被某种形式的碳定价所覆盖，而2020年这一比例仅为15%。越来越多的企业为了获得向大气排放一吨二氧化碳的权利，不得不向监管机构支付费用。投资者也开始感兴趣：这些市场的交易量去年增长了164%，达到7600亿欧元（8970亿美元）。

That is undoubtedly great news. Carbon prices ensure companies that burn more fossil fuels are at a competitive disadvantage while green innovation is rewarded. The revenue from the sale of carbon permits, meanwhile, can be reinvested in renewable energy or other virtuous ventures as governments see fit.

这无疑是个好消息。碳价格确保燃烧更多化石燃料的公司处于竞争劣势，而绿色创新则得到嘉奖。与此同时，出售碳排放许可的收入可以再投资于可再生能源或其他政府认为合适的善行（良性项目）。

The problem is that very few markets work as intended. Of the 64 carbon taxes and emissions-trading systems (ETSS) that existed in 2021, only a tiny minority, covering 3.8% of emissions, priced the gas above $40 a tonne, which the Carbon Price Leadership Coalition, a group of businesses and governments, estimates as the minimum social cost of carbon (a measure of the damage done to global welfare by increasing emissions). And that may be too generous already: some economists put it at more than $200. Many carbon markets are too cheap to make a difference. Most schemes operate on the principle of “cap and trade”. Regulators set a total level of permitted annual emissions—the cap—and auction these allowances to the companies included in the scheme.

问题是，很少有市场能按预期运作。在2021年存在的64个碳税和排放交易系统中，只有极少数，占排放量的3.8%，将天然气定价在每吨40美元以上，这是碳价格领导联盟（企业和政府组成的团体）估计的最低碳社会成本（衡量排放增加对全球福利造成的损害）。这可能已经太慷慨了：一些经济学家认为它超过200美元。许多碳市场的价格太过便宜，无法起到作用。大多数计划都遵循“总量管制和交易”的原则。监管机构设定了年度允许排放量的总水平——上限，并将这些配额拍卖给计划中包括的公司。

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