Feel Good About the Markets·Maybe You Shouldn’t Read This
Throughout the turbulence of his first months in office， President Trump has been able to point to one BAstion of suPPort: the stock market. Earlier this monthhe tweetedthe “great economic news” he thinks the mainstream media has been ignoring: The Dow Jones industrial average was up 16 percent and the Nasdaq up 19.5 percent since his election. Commerce SecretaryWilbur Rossmaintainedthat the Trump administration had bestowed $4 trillion in gains on investors.
尽管任职数月来动荡不断，可总统特朗普总可以指望的精神支柱就是股市。六月初，他发推特说主流媒体一直忽略了一个“经济大新闻”，即他当选以来，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨16%，纳斯卡克指数上涨19.5%。商务部长威尔伯·罗斯坚称，特朗普政府为投资者带来4万亿美元收益。
Investors have seemingly been oblivious to claims of Russian interference in the election， the firing of a director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation， and the appointment of a special prosecutor. As the second quarter ends this week， 2017 has so far been a banner year， with major indexes hitting records.
投资者看起来把俄罗斯干涉选举、联邦调查局局长被炒和任命特别检察官抛之脑后。第二季度结束了，到目前为止，2017年市场春风得意，主要股指都创了新高。
banner year:anextremelyprofitableorotherwisesuccessfulyearforapersonororganization.
But as the bull market rolls on， some see storm clouds on the horizon. “Valuations are high and it’s one of the longest and largest bull markets in history，” said James Stack， president of InvesTech Research. “Bull markets don’t last forever. So the question is， when will the MUsic stop？”
牛市轰轰向前，却有人发现风雨欲来。“估值很高，这是历史上时间最长、规模最大的牛市，”投资技术研究公司总裁詹姆斯·斯塔克说。“牛市不会一直持续。问题在于，音乐何时停止？”
Investors “are on a knife’s edge，” said Michael J. Kelly， global head of asset alloCATion for PineBridge Investments. With many still scarred by the financial crisis， “they see a potentialDISaster around every corner.”
投资者“在刀刃上行走”，松桥投资资产配置部全球主管迈克尔·凯利说。金融危机的创伤还历历在目，“他们发现到处都潜伏着可能发生的灾难。”
This month the so-called Faang stocks —Facebook，Amazon，Apple，NETFlixandGOOGle， which have led the market’srally— faced a suDDendowndraft， which many market watchers called a warning of turbulent times to come. Thosejitterswere on display Thursday， as tech shares led asell-offthatput a dentin the major indexes.
本月，引领大涨的所谓的Faang股票，即脸谱、亚马逊、苹果、奈飞和谷歌，突然转头下跌，许多市场观察者警告称动荡期就要到来。上周四，市场恐慌已现，科技公司股领跌，拉低了主要股指。
downdraft:Adownwardtrend；downturn
jitters:Afitofnervousness
sell-off:AsuddenandmarkeddeclineinstocKOrbondpricesresultingfromwidespreadselling
put a dent:toreducetheamountorleveLOFsomething
On June 14， theFederal Reserveraised short-term interest ratesfor the second time this year， a move that was widely EXPEcted. But more ominously for stock investors， the Fed also said it wouldreduceits $4.2 trillion balance sheetandtaperits purchases of longer-term government bonds （though it didn’t say howFAST）， bringing to an end thequantitative easingit undertook after the financial crisis. And the prospect that European central banks might join in the tightening has sent bond prices lower.And then there’s Mr. Trump himself， whose unpredictability and erratic behavior still have the potential torattlemarkets.So I asked some prominent investors and market analysts whether they were pulling back from stocks， and how they viewed these latest developments.
6月14日，美联储今年第二次提高短期利率，对此市场早有预判。但对股票投资者而言更要命的是，美联储还表示要缩表4.2万亿美元，并逐步减持长期政府债券，虽然并未表明退出强度如何，此举结束了金融危机以来美联储采取的量化宽松政策。预计欧洲央行也会加入紧缩行列，这会让债券价格进一步下跌。还得把特朗普本人考虑进来，他难以预测和乖张多变的行为有可能让市场恐慌。我询问了一些知名投资者和市场分析人士，他们是否会减仓，他们如何看待最近的走势。
rattle: to fluster， unnerve；使惊慌。
A Crack in the Faang Stocks
After some of the Faang stocksplunged over 3 percenton June 9， GOLDman Sachs compared them to the leADIng stocks of the tech bubble. But by the end of the month they’d recovered and were again approaching all-time highs.There’s no question that these market darlinGS， which together have accounted for a disproportionate percentage of the market’s gains， are expensive， and getting more so.Price-to-earnings ratiosrange from 38 （Facebook） to 184 （Amazon）.Theirmarket capsare so huge they dominate the indexes. They show up not only in so-called growth funds， but also in value and low-volatility funds. Should they embark on a sustained plunge， a bear market could quickly follow.
6月9日，有些Fanng股票暴跌超过3%，高盛将它们比作技术泡沫中的领头羊。但月底，股票又收复失地，再创新高。毫无疑问，这些市场宠儿价格不菲，且仍然一路高歌猛进。它们整体的市场收益与自身不成比例，市盈率从38（脸谱）到184（亚马逊）。市值巨大，算得上蓝筹股，不仅出现在成长性基金里，还出现在价值投资和低波动基金中。因此，如果他们持续下挫，熊市很快就会到来。
The tremor in June was “awarning shot across the bow，” said Bill Smead， the founder of Smead Capital Management in Seattle. The Faang stocks “are showing all the classic signs of being overcooked，” he added. “What magazine hasn’t had Jeff Bezos or Mark Zuckerberg on the cover·There’s no question this can end very badly. But the market can stay irrational for a very long time. My sense is that there’s one big blowout rally left in these stocks.”
六月的波动是“一条禁止警告”，西雅图的斯米德资本管理创始人比尔·斯米德说。Faang股票“正表现出典型的炒了过头的迹象，”他还说，“哪家杂志没把杰夫·贝佐斯和马克·扎克伯格放在封面？毫无疑问，结果会很糟糕。但市场会很长时间维持非理性状态。我感觉这些股票还能放量大涨一轮。”
a shot across the bow:awarningtostopdoingsomething
Mr. Stack noted that the Faang stocks had brief sell-offs last June and October， only to rebound. Still， he said， “the Faang stocks will be among the hardest hit in the next bear market due to the amount of money that flowed into them and the high expectations that have driven them higher.”But like Mr. Smead， he doesn’t expect that to be imminent. “We’re not buying them， but we’re not necessarily saying sell，” Mr. Stack said. He urged investors to rebalance portfolios that have become too heavily weighted in these stocks.
斯塔克先生指出，去年六月和十月，Faang股票杀跌，后来又回弹。他还说，“下一轮熊市中，Faang股票会跌得最惨，因为它们吸进去的钱太多，高预期让它们水涨船高。”但和斯米德一样，他不认为这马上就会发生。“我们不再加仓了，但也没必要说要减仓，”斯米德说。他呼吁投资者调整投资组合，不要重仓持有这些股票。
A Tightening Federal Reserve
Everyone I interviewed agreed that the Fed is the most likely catalyst for the next bear market， but that may still be years away.
我采访的所有人都同意美联储最有可能成为下一次熊市的催化剂，但他们认为会发生在数年以后。
“Historically it’s difficult to find a bear market that wasn’t triggered to some extent by the Fed，” Mr. Smead said. “But I don’t think unwinding the long bond position as gradually as they’re going to will have a significant impact. What would have an impact is if the Fed is forced to raise rates faster than everyone anticipates.The Fed has prepared investors for one more rate hike this year. That’s where the potential surprise could come. If we see two or three by year’s end， we’re going to see definite headwinds and maybe a market top of some significance.”
“从历史上看，在某种程度上，很难找出哪一次熊市不是美联储引发的，”斯米德说。“但我不认为他们打算逐步减少长期债券头寸会产生重要影响。会产生影响的是美联储加息速度比大家预想的更快。美联储今年还会给投资者加一次息。问题可能出在加息。如果年底出现两到三次加息，我们肯定会遭遇强风，可能对市场顶部造成一些影响。”
Mr. Kelly said the Fed had plenty of room to maneuver before stocks start to be affected. “We just had a once-in-70-year crisis that left very long scars. Businesses basically didn’t invest for eight years. In tightening， the Fed is acknowledging that a monetary policy built on a very fragile economic backdrop is no longer appropriate. But we’re just getting to the point now where people are crawling out of their shells and we’re seeing more normal economic activity.”
凯利说，在股市开始受到影响前，美联储有许多操作空间。“我们经历了七十年一遇的危机，危机留下了长长的伤疤。商人基本八年没投资了。美联储收紧了银根，其实这是承认，建立在非常脆弱的经济背景下的货币政策不合时宜了。但我们现在到了这样一个地步，人们开始从保护壳里爬出来了，我们发现有更多正常的经济活动。”
Mr. Kelly said bull markets typically last another three to four years after such a point in the economic cycle， and can even go another eight or nine. “Bull markets die from excess， not old age，” he said.
凯利说，从经济周期这一阶段开始，牛市一般会持续三到四年，甚至有八到九年。“牛市死于过剩，并非年迈。”他说。
Mr. Smead agreed. “There’s no question we’re getting closer to normal rates，” he said. “That will be difficult for the stock market when it happens. People will be less willing to be adventurous. But that’s still years away.”
斯米德同意。“毫无疑问，我们正在趋近正常利率，”他说，“当达到正常利率水平时，股市就比较难过了。人们不大愿意去冒险，但那会是几年以后的事。”
Over at InvesTech Research， “we’re still quite bullish，” Mr. Stack said. “We’re not increasing cash reserves. We are rebalancing towards more defensive and out-of-favor sectors， like consumer staples and health care.”
在投资技术研究公司里，“我们还是压牛市，”斯塔克说。“我们没有增加现金储备。我们调整仓位，投资更多保守型和不受关注的部门，像主要消费品和健康类产品。”
‘I Wouldn’t Call It a Trump Rally’
“The risks don’t lie with potential charges of obstruction of justice or even impeachment，” Mr. Stack said. “For political mayhem to upsetthe economic apple cart， it has to irreparably damage confidence at the consumer and business level.So far we don’t see that happening. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment measures are at 16-year highs， and C.E.O. confidence in April was the highest since 2004.”
“风险并不在于特朗普可能因妨害司法遭到起诉甚至弹劾，”斯塔克说。“政治混乱要搞乱经济，前提必须是无可挽回地损害消费者和企业信心，迄今为止我们还没看到。消费者信心和消费者情绪指数处于16年来的最高点，4月的首席执行官信心指数自2004年以来最高。”
upset the apple cart:tomessuporruinsomething
Nor have investors given up hope that a Republican Congress will still deliver business-friendly corporate tax reform and a pro-growth overhaul of the tax code， despite the president’s troubles.At the same time， “Trump shouldn’t be looking to the market for vindication，” Mr. Smead said. “I wouldn’t call it a Trump rally. He’s basically riding on the Obama years. ”
尽管总统遇到不少麻烦，投资者并没有放弃希望，他们认为共和党主导的国会还会推动有利于企业的公司税改革，推出支持增长的税法整顿。另一方面，“特朗普不该把市场作为辩护证据，”斯米德说。“我不会将其称为‘特朗普牛市’。他借了奥巴马当总统时的东风。”
His bottom line: “We don’t pay much attention to politics， and that’s been a good thing.”
一言以蔽之：“我们不太关心政治，这一直是一件好事。”
译者有四点粗浅的看法与君分享，作为本文的一些注脚。欢迎参与讨论。
·全球经济进入复苏周期，站在上行电梯上，傻子也能赢。
·可电梯究竟能爬多高，迄今看来人类还没猜对过，所谓三年之说纯属胡诌，三年后，专家还会说有三年，只有发生危机后才恍然大悟。
·这一轮大危机后究竟有没有伴随技术革命尚不是很清楚，尤其是特朗普的贸易保护主义和反智主义可能会阻碍旧产业的彻底出清。
·政治撕裂、贫富差距、种族危机一定会通过某种方式严重影响经济走势，主流西方经济学尚未将这些因素考虑在内。
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