美国宣布经济进入衰退的原因（每日外刊0611-到2024年美国可能出现经济衰退）

背景知识

当前，美联储已经启动了一个相当快速的加息过程。市场担心大举加息可能导致非常严重的潜在后果。

近日，德国商业银行经济专家发言称：在美国，关键利率的迅速上升可能会抑制需求，引发经济衰退。并且其还提到，自上世纪50年代以来，四分之三的案例都出现了衰退。而近日高盛经济专家们也对美国经济作出评估，大多都对美国经济持不乐观态度。

美国宣布经济进入衰退的原因（每日外刊0611-到2024年美国可能出现经济衰退）(1)

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A recession in America by 2024 looks likely

到2024年美国可能出现经济衰退

Not long ago recessions seemed to strike America roughly once a decade. But only two years after the first lockdowns, the business cycle is turning at a sickening speed and another one already seems to be on its way. If you are like most people, your memory of downturns will be dominated by the past two—the financial heart attack in 2007-09 and the pandemic-induced collapse in 2020. Both were severe and highly unusual. By their standards, America’s next recession will almost certainly be milder and more pedestrian. But because the world economy, asset markets and America’s politics are all fragile, it may yet have nasty and unpredictable consequences.

以前，美国的经济衰退似乎大约每十年发生一次。但是，距离第一次疫情封锁仅仅两年之后，商业周期正在以令人担心的速度转动，另一次衰退似乎已经在路上了。如果你像大多数人一样，你对经济下滑的记忆主要是过去的两次——2007-09年的金融心脏病（由美国次贷危机引起的全球金融危机）和2020年由新冠疫情引起的崩溃。这两次都很严重，而且非常不寻常。按照它们的标准，美国的下一次衰退几乎肯定会更温和、更平淡。但是，由于世界经济、资本市场和美国的政治都很脆弱，它可能还会产生恶劣和不可预测的后果。

There is no escaping the squeeze ahead for America’s economy. Surging food and petrol prices are eating into people’s spending. In April consumer prices were 8.3% higher than a year earlier. Even excluding food and energy prices, annual inflation is 6.2%. Supply-chain problems could flare up for as long as war rages in Ukraine and China sticks to its zero-covid policy.

美国经济未来的紧缩是无法避免的。激增的食品和汽油价格正在消耗掉人们的开销。4月份的消费价格比去年同期高出8.3%。即使不包括食品和能源价格，年度通胀率也是6.2%。只要乌克兰战火不断，中国坚持其清零政策，供应链问题就会爆发出来。

The American labour market is red-hot, with nearly two job openings for every unemployed worker in March, the most since 1950, when data were first collected. A measure of wage growth by Goldman Sachs is at an all-time high of nearly 5.5%—a rate companies cannot bear unless they continue to raise prices fast. The Fed is promising to pour water on the fire. Investors expect it to have raised interest rates by more than 2.5 percentage points by the end of 2022.

美国劳动力市场现在是红红火火，3月份，每一个失业工人有近两个职位空缺可以选择，这是自1950年首次收集数据以来最多的。高盛公司对工资增长的衡量标准达到了近5.5%的历史最高点——除非公司继续快速提价，否则无法承受这样的工资增加。美联储预计会泼冷水。投资者预计，到2022年底，它将把利率提高2.5个百分点以上。

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