译者 王为
文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明Holy WTF Moly: WTI May Contract Collapses to Negative -$37
by Wolf Richter
Some hedge funds and big crude-oil traders must be blowing up.
一些投机原油的对冲基金和大机构肯定爆仓了
It’s not often that we’re served up a WTF moment like this. Just about a couple of hours ago, I published my article about US crude-oil benchmark grade West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and how the May futures contract for it collapsed by 45% to $10 a barrel — US Crude Oil Gets Annihilated Under Targeted Saudi Attack — and I pointed at some of the dynamics. But WTI kept plunging.
西德克萨斯轻质原油的价格跌成这个样子真是罕见。就在几个小时以前，我刚写了一篇关于西德克萨斯轻质原油5月期货合约的报价狂泻45%跌至每桶10美元的文章，其中谈到导致油价暴跌的几个因素，但5月期货合约的报价还是跌个不停。
This is the near-month May futures contract, which expires tomorrow. It should normally trade close to the spot market price, but has now divorced from it. It has continued to collapse in a breath-taking pace to $8 a barrel, then $4, then $2, then $0, then below zero, then at -$10 and then… and now settled at negative -$37.63 a barrel:
这个5月合约是近月合约，将于明天到期交割，近月合约的报价通常会向现货市场的报价靠拢，但这次却出现明显的背离。该合约的报价持续暴跌，先是跌至每桶8美元，然后是4美元，2美元，0元，然后跌破0，跌至-10美元/桶，清算价最后成了-37.63美元。
This is obviously completely nuts. Futures contracts that expire the next day should be close to the spot market cash price.
这简直太扯淡了，如果一个期货合约将于明天到期，其报价应该与现货市场差不多才对。
But the WTI spot cash price “only” collapsed by 35% today to $11.70 at the moment. And in terms of prices further out, the June futures contract has plunged by 17% to $20.75. So this is a WTI massacre all around, but those prices are still well into positive territory.
但到目前为止，西德克萨斯轻质原油今天的现货报价只下跌了35%至每桶11.70美元。更远一点期限交割的期货合约，比如6月合约的报价下跌了17%至20.75美元。其他交割月份的西德克萨斯轻质原油期货的报价也在下跌，但仍远高于0。
So the disconnect between the May contract (-$37.63), and the cash spot price ($11.80), and the June contract ($21.77) point at some serious forced selling and a complete blowup in the May contracts.
因此5月份交割的期货合约-37.63美元/桶的结算价，11.80美元/桶的现货价以及6月合约21.77美元/桶的报价之间的脱节说明在原油期货市场上有严重的强平行为，导致5月合约的交易完全崩溃。
It seems some oil trading firms and hedge funds were caught on the wrong side of heavily leveraged bets, and couldn’t roll over their contracts due to a liquidity crunch and horrible market conditions in that space. But if they can’t sell the contracts by tomorrow, they’ll have to take delivery of the physical oil at the delivery point for NYMEX futures, namely in Cushing, Oklahoma.
看来有一些石油交易商和对冲基金因为在错误的方向上加杠杆重仓而被套住了，同时由于缺乏资金以及行情不利而无法将手中即将到期的期货合约转仓到其他的交割月份。如果明天这些机构未能把手中的5月合约卖出去，就不得不在纽约金属交易所（纽约金属交易所已被芝加哥商品交易所收购，专门从事能源和基本金属等大宗商品类期货品种的交易）规定的交割地点也就是俄克拉荷马州的Cushing把石油现货接过去。
The delivery time is in May. But storage in Cushing for May seems to have been spoken for, and now these traders see that they have no place to go with this oil that they might have to take delivery of in May.
期货合约具体的交割是在5月份，但5月份Cushing的石油存储设施似乎早已被预订一空，这些投机机构明白即使想硬着头皮接手石油现货，可哪有地方放呢。
But the market for the May contract today essentially collapsed, as potential buyers faced the same problem. And so in their desperate efforts to get rid of the contracts so they wouldn’t end up with the oil that they couldn’t physically handle, these speculators paid a heavy price.
但5月合约今天的交易完全崩了，因潜在的买家也面临着同样的问题。因此投机机构拼命地想清仓手中的期货合约以避免接手根本没法处理的石油现货，为此付出了惨痛的代价。
Over the next couple of days, we’ll probably learn who some of those exploded-imploded players might have been. Meanwhile this is a moment for historic reflection and head-shaking.
用不了几天，就会知道这些爆仓的机构都有谁，同时这也将成为值得深刻反思以及令人扼腕痛惜的一刻。
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