作者：萧平
XIAO PING
资深时事评论员。
Will "one country, two systems" stay beyond 2047?
50年不变还没到一半，对2047后“一国两制”能否延续的忧虑已在香港浮现。尽管邓小平讲过“50年后也不会变”，许多人还是担心，香港纷争不止，“”思潮冒起，中央能容忍这样的“两制”吗？
The Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region stipulates that "one country, two systems" will remain unchanged for 50 years. Today we have not even reached the halfway point of 50 years, but many people have been wondering whether the innovative institutional arrangement will stay beyond 2047. Although late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping declared that "one country, two systems" would remain unchanged after the 50th anniversary of the HKSAR, many people are still worried because the city has been rocked by political disputes, including Hong Kong independence advocacy, and they wondered whether central authorities may tolerate the "two systems" in its current form.
要回答50年后变与不变的问题，首先要看看50年不变的根据是什么？这个根据是不是发生了改变？
To answer this question we need to know the rationale behind the decision to keep “one country, two systems” unchanged for 50 years and whether this rationale has changed.
邓小平当年提50年不变是有前提的，这个前提就是“两个不变”。他是这样讲的：“说不变不是一个方面不变，而是两个方面不变。”“要真正能做到50年不变，50年以后也不变，就要大陆这个社会主义制度不变。”这就是说，内地不变，香港也会不变。“改变了中国共产党领导下的具有中国特色的社会主义制度，香港会是怎样？香港的繁荣和稳定也会吹的。”内地不变的标志是什么呢？邓小平说，就是坚持社会主义制度不变，坚持改革开放的政策不变。
When Deng put forward the idea of "unchanged for 50 years", he emphasized the premise: "Two things will remain unchanged". He said Hong Kong can "keep its capitalist system and way of life unchanged for 50 years or beyond only if the mainland keeps its socialist system unchanged." That means Hong Kong's system will remain unchanged as long as the mainland's remains unchanged. "What will happen to Hong Kong when the mainland's socialism with Chinese characteristics under the leadership of the Communist Party of China is changed? That would be the end of Hong Kong's prosperity and stability." What then is the ultimate determinant to prove that the mainland remains unchanged? According to Deng, it is the socialist system and the policy of reform and opening-up.
邓小平对2047后继续实行“一国两制”是有信心的，这与他设想的“三步走”战略目标相关联。他的“三步走”目标到本世纪中叶实现，正好是50年不变的节点。那时中国将达到中等发达国家的水平，国家的主体强大了，局部地区就会更加稳定，这样一来谁还想变呢？！
Deng was confident that "one country, two systems" would stay beyond 2047, as it coincides with his "three-step development strategy", which aims to build the country into a moderately developed nation by the middle of the 21st century, not far from the end of "unchanged for 50 years". By then the main body of the country would have become much stronger and more capable of ensuring regional stability than today. Why would anyone want to change the system then?
邓小平没有想到的是，今天中国的发展速度超出了他的预想，他规划的第三步现在就达到了。中共十九大重新调整了“三步走”的目标，提出到本世纪中叶建成现代化强国。反复强调，中国特色社会主义的旗帜不会变，改革开放的国策必须长期坚持。十九大还将“一国两制”确定为治国理政的基本方略。内地的快速发展，更加坚定了中央坚持“一国两制”的信心，可以肯定的说，中央政府真诚希望“一国两制”长期不变。
What Deng did not foresee back then is that China's rapid development would exceed his expectations by so much as to have achieved the "three-step development strategy" more than 20 years ahead of schedule. That is why the CPC adjusted the goal of the "three-step development strategy" at its 19th National Congress (Oct 18-24, 2017) and now aims to turn China into a modernized, strong country by the middle of this century. General Secretary Xi Jinping, who is also president of the nation, has emphasized more than once in recent years that the flag of socialism with Chinese characteristics will never change and the national strategy of reform and opening-up must continue no matter what. At its 19th National Congress, the CPC also named "one country, two systems" part of the fundamental strategy in national governance and handling State affairs. The speedy development of the mainland has boosted the confidence of the central government in upholding "one country, two systems", which is why we are sure the central government truly hopes it will remain unchanged long after 50 years.
问题在香港这边。香港会不会变？如果照有些人的所作所为，不要“一国”，只要“两制”，或明或暗搞“”，甚至与西方反华势力沆瀣一气，拚着命诋毁和颠覆内地的“一制”，这样下去，不用说2047，能不能50年不变，恐怕也要打问号了。
As such, the real question is with Hong Kong itself. Will Hong Kong remain unchanged? If attempts by some people to get rid of “one country” and keep “two systems” only to continue, with separatists conspiring openly or otherwise with anti-China forces overseas to undermine the mainland’s socialist system, it would be extremely hard to maintain “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong for 50 years, let alone beyond 2047.
现在谈2047为时尚早，但有一个前提条件可以成为思考“变与不变”的参照系，这就是基本法序言中所讲的“香港的历史和现实情况”。当年确定实行“一国两制”且50年不变，考虑的就是香港的历史和现实情况。50年后变不变，肯定也要看香港那时的历史和现实情况。到了2047，如果国家和香港都繁荣稳定，基本法得到有效贯彻，“两制”相安无事、相得益彰，“一国两制”当然就会延续。
It may be too early to talk about 2047. But when we consider whether or not to keep Hong Kong’s current system, we may refer to a precondition written in the preamble of the Basic Law — the history and realities of Hong Kong. Prior to Hong Kong’s return to the motherland, the decision to implement “one country, two systems” and keep it “unchanged for 50 years” was based on the city’s history and realities. Therefore, the same logic is applicable when we look beyond 2047. By 2047, if the country, including Hong Kong, remains prosperous and stable, and the “two systems” maintain a harmonious and complementary relationship, it is of course in the best interest of all parties concerned that “one country, two systems” sustains.
“50年不变”写入了基本法，有法律的严肃性，但不妨把它理解为“长期不变”的另一种表达。邓小平说，“50年只是一个形象的说法，50年后也不会变。前50年是不能变，50年之后是不需要变。”期待他的预言成真。
Although "no change for 50 years" enshrined in the Basic Law should be read literally, it may be seen as another way of saying "unchanged for a long time". Deng Xiaoping once explained, "Fifty years is just figurative speech, meaning ('one country, two systems') would remain unchanged beyond 50 years." He added that "in the first 50 years, it must not be changed; but after that, it would not be necessary to change anything." We sincerely hope his prediction will come true.
原文刊登于4月20日《中国日报香港版》
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