1、到2022年，由于重新开放的推动作用减弱、财政和货币紧缩、中国的新冠肺炎限制措施和房地产低迷，以及俄罗斯和乌克兰战争，全球增长放缓。
2、2023年全球经济增长率仅为1.8%，与之形成鲜明对比的是美国经济的韧性，以及欧洲经济的衰退和中国经济艰难的重新开放。
3、随着核心个人消费价格指数(PCE)通胀从现在的5%放缓至2023年底的3%，失业率的Vpp上升，美国应该会勉强避免衰退。
4、为了在更强劲的实际收入增长中保持增长低于潜在水平，现在看到美联储再次加息125个基点，达到5-5.25%的峰值，预计2023年不会削减。
5、在就业受到的冲击如此之小的情况下，核心通胀率为何会下降如此之多?原因在于这个周期不同于之前的高通胀时期。
1）大流行后的劳动力市场过热表现在前所未有的职位空缺上，而不是过度就业。
2）近期供应链和租赁住房市场的正常化所带来的抑制通胀的效果还有很长的路要走。
3）长期通胀预期依然稳固。
6、欧元区和英国很可能正处于衰退之中，主要是因为飙升的能源账单打击了实际收入，但我们预计只会出现温和的低迷，因为欧洲已经成功地减少了从俄罗斯的天然气进口，而没有影响到欧洲的活动，而且很可能受益于疫情后的改善，而这种改善正在帮助美国避免衰退。
7、鉴于深度低迷和通胀持续的风险降低，我们现在预计欧洲央行在5月份之前会加息，峰值为3%。
8、中国可能在上半年增长缓慢，因为4月的重新开放最初会引发Covid病例的增加，这让人们保持高度警惕，但在重新开放的提振下，在下半年应该会大幅加速。
9、对中国的长期观点仍持谨慎态度，因为房地产市场长期下滑，潜在增长放缓(反映出人口结构和生产率的疲弱)。
10、中东欧和拉丁美洲的几家央行开始加息的时间远早于德国央行。
11、尽管目前还没有哪个国家明显实现了软着陆，但经济活动一直具有弹性，一些国家的通胀正在下降，尤其是巴西。
12、由于大宗商品敞口、高通胀和持续的货币紧缩，中东欧国家的处境更为艰难。
（唐加文）
［Macro Outlook 2023: This Cycle Is Different］
Global growth slowed through 2022 on a diminishing reopening boost, fiscal and monetary tightening, China's Covid restrictions and property slump, and the Russia-Ukraine war. We expect global growth of just 1.8% in 2023, as US resilience contrasts with a European recession and a bumpy reopening in China.
The US should narrowly avoid recession as core PCE inflation slows from 5% now to 3% in late 2023 with a Vpp rise in the unemployment rate. To keep growth below potential amidst stronger real income growth, we now see the Fed hiking another 125bp to a peak of 5-5.25%. We don't expect cuts in 2023.
How can core inflation fall so much with such a small employment hit? The reason, we think, is that this cycle is different from prior high-inflation periods.
First, post-pandemic labor market overheating showed up not in excessive employment but in unprecedented job openings, which are much less painful to unwind.
Second, the disinflationary impact of the recent normalization in supply chains and rental housing markets still has a long way to go.
And third, long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
The Euro area and the UK are probably in recession, mainly because of the real income hit from surging energy bills. But we expect only a mild downturn as Europe has already managed to cut Russian gas imports without crushing activity and is likely to benefit from the same post-pandemic improvements that are helping avoid US recession. Given reduced risks of a deep downturn and persistent inflation, we now expect hikes through May with a 3% ECB peak.
China is likely to grow slowly in H1 as an April reopening initially triggers an increase in Covid cases that keeps caution high, but should accelerate sharply in H2 on a reopening boost. Our longer-run China view remains cautious because of the long slide in the property market as well as slower potential growth (reflecting weakness in both demographics and productivity).
Several central banks in Central/Eastern Europe and Latin America started hiking rates well before their DM peers. While none has clearly achieved a soft landing yet, activity has been resilient and inflation is now coming down in some countries, especially Brazil. CEE is in a more difficult position because of its commodity exposure, high inflation, and ongoing monetary tightening.
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