台州最新台风预报（海洋预报台风）

台州最新台风预报（海洋预报台风）(1)

台州最新台风预报（海洋预报台风）(2)

台风“摩羯”（2018年）登陆台州并造成台州大暴雨的成因分析

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作者：倪钟萍¹魏雪¹贺立夫²裘杭培¹

单位：1. 台州市气象局, 浙江台州 318000;

2. 台州市路桥区气象局, 浙江台州 318050

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第四期（37-46）

摘要：利用自动站气象要素资料、FNL全球分析资料和台州雷达资料，分析台风“摩羯”（2018年）登陆台州并造成台州大暴雨的原因。结果表明：涡度趋势分析发现，登陆前正相对涡度趋势大值区位于台州南部—温州北部地区，指示台风“摩羯”向其沿海靠近，最后登陆于台州南部的温岭沿海，其主要贡献是涡度平流项即副热带高压对台风的引导作用。台风“摩羯”给台州带来的大暴雨主要位于黄岩、仙居、临海和天台交界的山区，为台风本体带来的降水，东—东南风急流配合深厚的水汽条件以及台风的不对称结构和台州西部山区的地形增幅作用造成了局地大暴雨。此次过程中，雨量最大的天柱林场地区81%时次的降水是在回波强度达25 dBZ以上时产生的，回波最强达47 dBZ时6 min雨量为6.1 mm，25～40 dBZ的回波强度平均产生1.25 mm/6 min的降水；“摩羯”台风降水的回波强度不强，但较强降水持续近11 h，累计雨量达大暴雨。

关键词：登陆台风；大暴雨；涡度趋势；雷达

Abstract：The reason for typhoon "Yagi" (2018) making landfall and causing heavy rainfall in Taizhou is analyzed using the meteorological data of medium-scale automatic meteorological stations, global Final Analysis (FNL) analysis data and radar data in Taizhou. The results show that the positive relative vorticity tendency with large value before the landfall is located between the south of Taizhou and the north of Wenzhou, indicating that the typhoon approaches the coast of Wenzhou and Taizhou. The landing of typhoon "Yagi" in the coast of Wenling in southern Taizhou in the end is mainly due to the vorticity advection, which is the guiding effect of the subtropical high on typhoon "Yagi". The heavy rainfall caused by typhoon "Yagi" is mainly located in mountainous areas at the junction of Huangyan, Xianju, Linhai and Tiantai, which is caused by the typhoon itself. The local heavy rainfall is caused by the east-southeast wind jet bring deep water vapor, the asymmetry structure of typhoon and the topographic amplification effect of the western mountainous area of Taizhou. During this process, the heaviest rainfall locates in the Tianzhu Forest Farm area, and 81% of the precipitation is generated when the echo intensity is above 25 dBZ. When the echo is the strongest at 47 dBZ, the rainfall in 6 min is 6.1 mm, and the echo intensity of 25~40 dBZ produces 1.25 mm of precipitation per 6 min on average. The echo intensity of typhoon "Yagi" precipitation is not strong. However, the heavy rainfall lasts for nearly 11 hours and causes the heavy rain.

Key words：landfall typhoon; heavy rainfall; vorticity tendency; radar

台州最新台风预报（海洋预报台风）(3)